Bernstein Cuts IREN Target to $100 Amid AI Cloud Shift
Bernstein lowered its price target for IREN from $125 to $100, citing a Bitcoin mining scale-down and share dilution, while reiterating an Outperform rating. The firm highlights IREN's pivot to AI cloud services, anchored by a $1.94B annualized Microsoft GPU contract.
Quick Take
Price target cut from $125 to $100 despite Outperform rating
Microsoft deal contributes $1.94B in annualized AI cloud revenue
Bitcoin mining revenue expected to trend to zero by fiscal 2030
AI cloud revenues forecast to reach $6B by 2030 with strong margins
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralThe pivot away from Bitcoin mining reduces crypto market relevance, while the AI cloud shift does not directly impact crypto asset prices. The news mainly affects IREN's stock valuation.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bernstein cut IREN's price target from $125 to $100, maintaining an Outperform rating, driven by Bitcoin mining wind-down and share dilution, not AI weakness.
- A $1.94B annualized Microsoft GPU contract anchors the pivot to AI cloud, with another $400M in on-demand contracts already signed.
- Bitcoin mining revenue is modeled to trend to zero by fiscal 2030 as GPU racks replace mining rigs across IREN's infrastructure.
- Analysts forecast $6B in AI cloud revenue by 2030 at ~82% EBITDA margins, supported by 4.5 GW of power holdings.
What Happened
Bernstein cut its price target for IREN from $125 to $100 per share on Monday, even as it reaffirmed the stock as a top pick among AI-focused Bitcoin miners. The reduction reflects the wind-down of Bitcoin mining operations and an increased share count from recent equity issuances — not any deterioration in the company's AI cloud business.
IREN shares fell more than 9% on the day, dragged by a broader AI stock sell-off. Still, the stock is up 25% over the past month, underscoring investor confidence in its pivot. The company is rapidly transforming into a superscale AI cloud provider, anchored by a massive GPU deal with Microsoft.
The Numbers
IREN has contracted 77,000 of its 150,000 GPUs to Microsoft under a five-year agreement generating roughly $1.94 billion in annualized revenue. Another $400 million in on-demand cloud contracts were already signed as of February. Bernstein projects AI cloud revenues will climb from $2.6 billion in 2027 to $6 billion by 2030, when IREN expects to operate 275,000 GPUs. Adjusted EBITDA margins are forecast near 82% at scale, implying nearly $5 billion in EBITDA.
The company holds 4.5 gigawatts of power across Texas, British Columbia, and Oklahoma. Analysts value the 3.6 GW of undeveloped capacity at $3 million per megawatt, contributing around $10.8 billion to the sum-of-the-parts valuation. Bitcoin mining, once the core business, is assigned zero value in the updated model, with mining revenue expected to reach zero by fiscal 2030.
Why It Happened
The target cut is a direct consequence of IREN's strategic pivot away from Bitcoin mining and the dilution needed to fund its AI buildout. Bernstein emphasized the bull case remains intact — the reduction simply accounts for the fading contribution of mining and share count growth from a $5.8 billion GPU purchase agreement with Dell and $3.6 billion in GPU-backed financing.
IREN's transformation mirrors a broader industry trend where Bitcoin miners repurpose power and infrastructure for AI workloads. With a Microsoft prepayment covering much of the capital expenditure, the company is well-positioned to capture rising demand for AI compute.
Broader Impact
IREN's move underscores how the lines between crypto mining and AI infrastructure are blurring. Several prominent mining firms have embraced AI, with some abandoning crypto entirely. This shift could reshape the energy and data center landscape, as infrastructure built for proof-of-work blockchains finds new life in the AI boom.
What to Watch Next
- GPU deployment pace: Track IREN's progress in scaling from 150,000 to 275,000 GPUs and signing additional cloud contracts.
- Microsoft execution: Quarterly revenue contributions from the Microsoft deal will signal whether the $1.94B run rate holds.
- Mining wind-down: Monitor quarterly mining revenue declines and announcements of further hardware repurposing.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always late to trends?
Join for the latest news, insights & more.
Disclaimer: Bytewit is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data.
© 2026 Bytewit. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only.
