Bitcoin Bear Metric Marks Bottom as Losses Top Profits
Over half of all bitcoin is now held at a loss, surpassing supply in profit for the first time this cycle. Historically, this metric marked bear market bottoms, though duration varies. Bitcoin's price hit the 200-week MA at $61,300, with $54,000 as next support.
Quick Take
10.5M BTC held at loss, exceeding 9.8M BTC in profit.
Metric previously aligned with bear-market bottoms across multiple cycles.
Bitcoin touched $61,300 200-week MA; realized price at $54,000 is next support.
Market Impact Analysis
BearishHistorical on-chain metric showing majority of BTC in loss suggests bearish momentum, potentially leading to further downward price pressure if key supports fail.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- More than half of Bitcoin's circulating supply now held at a loss—10.5M BTC vs. 9.8M BTC in profit.
- This is the first time this cycle the loss supply has exceeded profit supply, a historic bear-market signal.
- BTC touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300; a break below $60,000 could send price to $54,000.
- In past cycles, such conditions marked market bottoms, but duration ranged from one month to nearly a year.
What Happened
Bitcoin's on-chain metrics flashed a major bear signal. For the first time during the current cycle, the amount of BTC held at an unrealized loss topped the amount held in profit. At the price trough around $61,300, some 10.5 million bitcoins—over half the circulating supply—slid into the red. The shift underscores intensifying selling pressure and a shift in market structure reminiscent of past bear phases.
The Numbers
The data, sourced from Glassnode, shows supply in loss peaking at 10.5M BTC while supply in profit dropped to 9.8M. That gap materialized as bitcoin tagged the 200-week moving average at $61,300, a trendline that has historically served as bear-market support. If $60,000 fails, the realized price—the average on-chain acquisition cost—sits at $54,000, a level that has marked ultimate capitulation in prior cycles.
Why It Happened
The erosion of profitable supply follows bitcoin’s decline from all-time highs, pushing a majority of holders underwater. Macro headwinds, waning spot ETF excitement, and leveraged long liquidations accelerated the drop. The metric’s reversal has only occurred during deep bear markets, reflecting a reset in holder sentiment and a purge of weak hands. Historical parallels from 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 show this condition aligning with final lows, though the duration varies widely.
Broader Impact
This on-chain signal carries weight beyond Bitcoin. It often leads to deleveraging across crypto markets, increased correlation with risk-off assets, and a flight to stablecoins. For altcoins, it could signal a prolonged period of underperformance. However, if history repeats, the current distress may be setting the stage for the next accumulation phase.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor Bitcoin's weekly close relative to $60,000—a breakdown targets $54,000, the realized price.
- Watch on-chain supply-in-profit metrics; a flip back above loss would indicate recovering strength.
- Stay alert to macro catalysts like Fed policy shifts or ETF flows that could reverse the downtrend.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always late to trends?
Join for the latest news, insights & more.
Disclaimer: Bytewit is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data.
© 2026 Bytewit. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only.
