Bitcoin’s June Options Expiry Leaves $8.6B Underwater
Bitcoin’s 12% monthly decline has pushed 80% of June 26 options out of the money, worth $8.6 billion, drowning bullish positions. The downturn highlights mounting bearish pressure ahead of expiry.
Quick Take
20% of June 26 Bitcoin options remain in the money
Bitcoin’s 12% monthly drop sinks most bullish bets
$8.6 billion in open interest now out of the money
Large options expiry could exacerbate short-term selling pressure
Market Impact Analysis
BearishThe large volume of out-of-the-money options suggests strong bearish positioning, which may lead to further selling pressure as expiry approaches.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Only 20% of Bitcoin options expiring June 26 remain in the money.
- Bitcoin’s 12% monthly decline has sunk $8.6 billion in open interest underwater.
- Massive out-of-the-money options could accelerate selling pressure as expiry nears.
- Bullish traders face near-total wipeout if BTC stays below strike prices.
What Happened
Bitcoin’s relentless sell-off in June has decimated bullish options positions. A 12% monthly plunge pushed $8.6 billion in open interest out of the money ahead of the June 26 expiry. Now, only 20% of those contracts are in profitable territory. The carnage leaves most call buyers staring at worthless contracts unless a dramatic price recovery unfolds within days. The derivatives market is flashing extreme bearishness, threatening to compound spot market weakness as traders brace for a large expiration event.
The Numbers
The data paints a stark picture. $8.6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest now sits underwater — a massive sum concentrated around strikes far above current spot. Just 20% of the June 26 contracts are in the money. Bitcoin’s 12% decline over the past month has cratered expectations, with the most popular call strikes effectively wiped out. The expiration on Friday looms as a potential volatility catalyst, with dealers forced to hedge their books as positions settle.
Why It Happened
June’s crypto rout traces back to a cocktail of headwinds: hawkish central bank signals, ETF outflows, and a broader risk-off shift. Bitcoin lost momentum after failing to hold key levels, sliding below $60,000 and dragging options markets into distress. Bullish bets placed earlier in the year on post-halving rallies or institutional adoption failed to materialize. With spot BTC under persistent pressure, the options market flipped bearish, leaving most long positions deep out of the money as expiry approaches.
Broader Impact
This expiry could amplify downside as dealers unload delta hedges. When calls expire worthless, market makers dump BTC previously held as a hedge, adding spot selling pressure. A high imbalance toward out-of-the-money open interest suggests that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, the settlement could trigger a fresh leg down. The event also resets positioning for July, potentially emboldening bears and depressing sentiment further.
What to Watch Next
- BTC price action around $60K: A breakdown below this psychological level could accelerate sell-offs into expiry.
- June 26 settlement: Watch volumes and volatility as $8.6B in options vanish — dealers may move markets fast.
- July open interest: Early data on new positioning will reveal if bears remain in control or if dip-buyers step in.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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