BTC Bottom in August? 10x Research Flags $63K Level
10x Research suggests Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom if it closes August above $63,000. With indicators like RSI and supply at loss, they favor longs but warn of macro risks and miner selling. Grayscale and K33 also see signs of an approaching bottom.
Quick Take
August close above $63K could flip Bitcoin's cycle indicators bullish per 10x Research.
Supply at loss over 50% historically preceded bottoms within 13–31 days, says K33.
Long-term holders at record 14.7M BTC add to bottom signal, per Swan Bitcoin CEO.
Macro risks like Fed rate hikes and Iran conflict could disrupt the setup.
Market Impact Analysis
Bullish10x Research signals a potential bullish reversal if BTC closes August above $63k, with cycle indicators turning bullish; however, macro risks and miner selling pressure could undermine this.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- August close above $63K could flip Bitcoin’s cycle indicators bullish, signaling a bear-market bottom, says 10x Research.
- Over half of Bitcoin’s supply sits at a loss, historically preceding bottoms within 13-31 days, per K33 Research.
- Long-term holders now control a record 14.7 million BTC, adding to bottom formation signals.
- Macro risks like Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions could derail the bullish setup.
- Potential miner selling pressure of 100,000 BTC looms as operations shift to AI infrastructure.
What Happened
Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom as early as August if it closes the month above $63,000, according to analysis by 10x Research. Founder Markus Thielen says a monthly finish at that level would flip several cycle indicators from bearish to bullish, potentially ending months of downside. Bitcoin traded at $63,140 at the time of the report, meaning only modest gains are needed from July’s close to trigger the signal. 10x Research maintains a long bias but warns it would shift neutral if key support levels or moving averages break.
The Numbers
The $63,000 resistance is the immediate focus, but broader metrics paint a picture of building bottom signals. Crypto brokerage K33 flags that more than 50% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently held at a loss — a condition that preceded market bottoms within 13 to 31 days in 2017, 2018, and 2022. Long-term holders now control a record 14.7 million BTC, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten, adding conviction to the bottom thesis. Meanwhile, miners could dump up to 100,000 BTC as they shift resources toward AI, creating potential selling headwinds.
Why It Happened
Historical patterns drive the optimism. Supply at loss reaching extreme levels repeatedly coincided with cycle troughs. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, and the $63,000 level aligns with multiple technical indicators. Grayscale’s head of research even suggests Bitcoin may be bottoming earlier than its traditional four-year cycle. Yet external factors threaten the setup: the Federal Reserve could yet hike rates if Treasury yields spike, and the Iran conflict introduces geopolitical uncertainty. These macro variables remain the biggest risk to the bullish scenario.
Broader Impact
If Bitcoin confirms a bottom in August, the implications ripple across crypto. A bullish reversal in BTC often precedes altcoin rallies. Grayscale’s early-bottom thesis challenges the conventional wisdom of a Q4 trough, suggesting the market may be pricing in a future Fed pivot or other catalysts. Miner selling pressure, however, could dampen the move and test the conviction of long holders. The next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the bear market is truly over.
What to Watch Next
- August Monthly Close: Bitcoin must close above $63,000 to trigger the bullish cycle indicator flip. Monitor price action in the final days of the month.
- Fed Policy & Yields: Any shift in interest rate expectations or a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield could disrupt the bottom formation.
- Miner Activity: Watch on-chain data for significant transfers to exchanges, as the estimated 100,000 BTC in potential selling pressure remains a threat.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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