BTC holds $64K as Strait of Hormuz reopening spurs stock rally
Bitcoin trades near $64,000 as easing US-Iran tensions boost risk assets, lifting S&P 500 to a $70 trillion market cap. On-chain data reveals strong BTC accumulation, while oil prices slide. Fed rate hike odds hover at 56.7% for September, influencing market sentiment.
Quick Take
Bitcoin climbs 1% to $64,176 amid geopolitical optimism and stock rally.
S&P 500 reaches new $70T record as oil prices drop on Hormuz reopening hopes.
CryptoQuant reports 0.7% BTC supply accumulation between $62K-$65K, signaling absorption.
Fed rate hike probability at 56.7%, adding to macro-driven market dynamics.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishEasing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and strong BTC accumulation signal potential bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin rose 1% to $64,176 as geopolitical optimism lifted risk appetite.
- S&P 500 hit a record $70 trillion market cap after oil prices slumped on Hormuz reopening hopes.
- On-chain data shows strong accumulation of 0.7% of BTC supply near $62K-$65K.
- Fed rate hike probability for September stands at 56.7%, shaping macro sentiment.
What Happened
Bitcoin inched higher on Tuesday as easing geopolitical tensions fueled a risk-on rally. Stocks surged, with the S&P 500 topping a $70 trillion market cap for the first time. BTC/USD touched $64,176, up about 1%, but remained within a tight range between key moving averages. The catalyst: hopeful comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices tumbled, and traders priced in reduced risk, boosting equities. Bitcoin, often correlated with risk assets, benefited from the improved sentiment but lagged the stock market’s record-breaking performance.
The Numbers
Oil dropped nearly 5%, sending WTI and Brent to their lowest since mid-July. On-chain data from CryptoQuant revealed that investors accumulated around 155,000 BTC at prices between $62,000 and $65,000—0.7% of the circulating supply. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 56.7% probability of a quarter-point rate hike in September, underscoring the macro forces at play.
Why It Happened
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage, had been a geopolitical flashpoint. Bessent’s comments signaled a potential diplomatic breakthrough, easing fear of supply disruptions. This directly lowered oil prices and inflation concerns, lifting stocks. Bitcoin, sensitive to liquidity and macro trends, tracked the risk-on move but remained rangebound as traders awaited clearer Federal Reserve signals. Strong accumulation levels suggested buyers were absorbing selling pressure, providing a foundation for BTC.
Broader Impact
The reopening of Hormuz could lower energy costs, potentially cooling inflation and influencing the Fed’s rate path. For crypto, a less hawkish Fed could boost risk assets like Bitcoin. However, if rate hike odds firm, BTC may face headwinds. The accumulation trend shows underlying demand despite the range.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor BTC’s move relative to its moving averages; a breakout above $65K could signal a trend shift.
- Watch oil prices and Hormuz developments—further easing may propel risk assets higher.
- Fed commentary and September rate hike probability shifts will dictate macro sentiment and crypto flows.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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