BTC Long-Term Holders Halt Selling, Halving Model Points to September Bottom
Long-term Bitcoin holders’ spending drops to a 19-month low as their cost basis nears current prices. Analysts flag a halving-cycle bottoming window for early September, supported by on-chain data showing new investor capitulation while seasoned holders hold firm.
Quick Take
Long-term BTC holder spending falls to 962 BTC, lowest in 19 months.
Cost basis of $63,200 close to current price discourages selling.
Halving cycle model suggests potential bottom in early September.
New investors capitulate while old hands barely flinch.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralMixed signals: long-term holders are not selling, which is positive, but short-term holder capitulation and potential further downside create uncertainty.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Long-term BTC holder spending drops to 962 BTC, the lowest in 19 months.
- Coins acquired at ~$63,200 sit near current prices, discouraging selling from veteran addresses.
- Halving cycle model suggests a potential market bottoming window in early September.
- New investors face a -56% capital drawdown while long-term holders barely move.
- Sustained unrealized losses pressure short-term holders as aNUPL stays negative.
What Happened
Bitcoin’s oldest hands have dramatically dialed back selling. The 90-day moving average of spent outputs from wallets holding coins for over five years has plunged to 962 BTC, marking the lowest spend rate since November 2024. After three major distribution waves following strong rallies, these long-term holders are now near their average acquisition cost of around $63,200. With BTC trading close to that level, they are opting to hold rather than realize losses.
The Numbers
The 90-day spending average for coins older than five years has collapsed from peaks of 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Meanwhile, the adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has slid to -0.14, reflecting broad unrealized losses. Short-term holder capital has contracted by 56%, while long-term holder capital remains virtually unchanged. A quarterly chart reveals an untested support near $58,900.
Why It Happened
The slowdown in selling stems from a simple calculation: long-term holders are near their cost basis. With the market offering prices little above their entry, selling would lock in minimal profit or even losses. On-chain data shows these veteran addresses—those with a five-year or longer time horizon—are weathering the downturn with conviction. At the same time, newer market participants capitulate, evidenced by the sharp decline in short-term holder capital and sustained aNUPL negativity. The halving cycle provides a structural backdrop: historically, major bottoms form around 826 days after a halving, putting the window in early September.
Broader Impact
The divergence between long-term and short-term holder behavior underscores a maturing market where seasoned participants accumulate quietly while retail panic sells. If the halving bottom thesis holds, September could mark a turning point that sets the stage for the next bull cycle. The lack of selling pressure from old coins also reduces immediate downside risk, though macro headwinds remain.
What to Watch Next
- Whether BTC can hold above the $58,900 untapped support level on quarterly timeframes.
- The July 6 date (826 days post-halving) for potential capitulation signals as per the halving cycle model.
- Any reversal in long-term holder spending or aNUPL trends that could indicate a shift in sentiment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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