India Blocks Polymarket, Kalshi Next in Prediction Market Crackdown
India blocks access to Polymarket and plans to ban Kalshi, citing the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. The government classifies prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming, continuing its risk-averse stance toward crypto and speculative platforms.
Quick Take
India's IT ministry directed ISPs to block prediction markets, hitting Polymarket.
Kalshi may receive a blocking order soon, per anonymous official.
India's 2025 Act prohibits online money gaming, including prediction markets.
The anti-crypto stance includes 30% tax, 1% TDS, and AML oversight.
Market Impact Analysis
BearishIndia's aggressive prohibition of prediction markets signals hostility toward speculative platforms, potentially reducing crypto-related activity and liquidity in the region.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- India's IT ministry ordered ISPs to block Polymarket on April 25, making the platform inaccessible to local users.
- Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, could receive a blocking order as soon as Friday, per an anonymous government source.
- The crackdown classifies prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming under the 2025 Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act.
- India's broader anti-crypto stance includes a 30% tax on gains and 1% TDS on transactions, suppressing trading volumes.
What Happened
India abruptly blocked access to Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction platform, after the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) issued an advisory on April 25. The directive compelled internet service providers to terminate access to prediction markets, with Polymarket as a primary target. Users now see a connection error when attempting to visit the site. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform still accessible for now, may face a blocking order imminently, according to an anonymous MeitY source. The action falls under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which prohibits online money gaming.
The Numbers
The April 25 advisory triggered an immediate block on Polymarket, rendering it unreachable across India. Kalshi's potential ban adds to the pressure, with an order expected this week. India's punitive crypto tax regime—a flat 30% on gains plus a 1% TDS on every transaction—has already crushed domestic trading volumes. Prediction markets now join virtual digital assets under the government's anti-speculation umbrella, reinforcing a fiscal and regulatory chokehold.
Why It Happened
India's risk-averse posture toward speculative platforms drove the ban. By classifying prediction markets as online money gaming, the government equated them with prohibited gambling, bypassing any financial innovation argument. The 2025 Act formalized this stance, reflecting a broader strategy to control capital outflows and maintain financial stability. A shadow ban via taxation had already stifled crypto trading; now, direct blocking extends the same logic to event-based wagering.
Broader Impact
The prohibition signals escalating hostility toward any decentralized or speculative activity, pushing crypto and prediction market startups to relocate abroad. India's parliamentary committee recently grilled exchanges over VDAs, highlighting concerns about outflows. This clampdown may accelerate talent and capital flight to hubs like Dubai and Singapore, while cementing India's reputation as a regulatory minefield for emerging financial tech.
What to Watch Next
- Whether Kalshi receives an official blocking order this week, which would confirm an industry-wide crackdown.
- Potential legal challenges from platforms or industry bodies arguing the ban overreaches under the new gaming law.
- Further regulatory tightening targeting other prediction markets or DeFi platforms operating in India.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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