Polymarket Seeks CFTC Nod for Full US Relaunch
Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to permit US users on its main prediction market platform, reversing a 2022 ban. The move could heighten competition with rival Kalshi, which recently surpassed Polymarket in volumes. However, both platforms face legal challenges, including a Wisconsin lawsuit, underscoring the regulatory uncertainty surrounding event contracts.
Quick Take
Polymarket negotiating CFTC vote to lift US user ban.
2022 settlement: $1.4M fine, block US access.
Kalshi overtook Polymarket in volume share since Sept 2025.
Wisconsin lawsuit accuses both platforms of illegal sports betting.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralA US relaunch could boost prediction market activity and crypto usage (e.g., USDC), but the article does not confirm a direct token price effect, and legal risks temper upside.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket is negotiating with the CFTC to repeal its US user ban and fully relaunch its prediction market platform in the country.
- The 2022 settlement required Polymarket to pay $1.4M and block American users after offering unregistered event-based contracts.
- Rival Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket in monthly volumes since September 2025, adding urgency to the re-entry push.
- A Wisconsin lawsuit accuses both platforms of illegal sports betting, underscoring state-level regulatory threats.
- A successful CFTC vote could reshape the US prediction market landscape, though legal uncertainty remains.
What Happened
Polymarket is in active talks with the CFTC to lift the prohibition on US-based users from its main prediction market platform, according to reports. The move would tear up a restriction imposed in 2022, when the platform settled charges over unregistered event contracts by paying a $1.4M penalty and blocking American access. A formal commission vote is required to reverse the ban. With four CFTC commissioner seats currently vacant, the path to a decision may be smoother, as fewer members need to agree. Polymarket already operates a limited US app focused on sports contracts, but a full relaunch would unlock the broader markets that once made it a dominant force.
The Numbers
Polymarket’s withdrawal from the US has been costly. In November 2024, the platform captured more than 90% of total monthly notional volume across prediction markets. By September 2025, Kalshi had overtaken it, mirroring a prolonged volume slide. The 2022 CFTC settlement included a $1.4M civil penalty and an ongoing user block. Meanwhile, both platforms face fresh legal heat: Wisconsin’s attorney general filed a lawsuit on April 23, accusing them of illegal sports betting alongside other crypto names, adding legal expenses and reputational risk to the tally.
Why It Happened
Polymarket is chasing the US market share it lost to Kalshi, which has been operating domestically under a regulated framework and has even become an official market provider for Coinbase. With prediction markets gaining mainstream traction and the CFTC’s current posture—perhaps more open under a new administration—the timing feels right to push for re-entry. Polymarket cannot afford to cede ground permanently to a rival that has already surpassed it in volumes. The company’s limited US sports app was a start, but a full platform is needed to compete on equal footing.
Broader Impact
If the CFTC greenlights Polymarket’s return, the US prediction market sector would instantly become a two-horse race, intensifying innovation and user acquisition battles. The decision could also set a precedent for how event contracts are regulated federally, even as state-level suits like Wisconsin’s test their legality as forms of gambling. For the crypto industry, a growing prediction market ecosystem often means higher usage of stablecoins like USDC, which underpins many of these platforms. Yet the patchwork of state challenges means no single federal nod guarantees smooth sailing.
What to Watch Next
- CFTC commissioner appointments: The White House’s picks for the four empty seats could sway the vote’s speed and outcome.
- Wisconsin lawsuit developments: A ruling could either validate or jeopardize the entire US prediction market model.
- Polymarket’s user strategy: How it re-onboards Americans and whether it can quickly close the volume gap with Kalshi.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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