Survey: 70% of Crypto Investors Say Bitcoin Is Undervalued
A Coinbase/Glassnode survey finds 75% of institutional and 61% of retail investors think Bitcoin is undervalued, while on-chain metrics like the BCMI at 0.37 point to a value-accumulation zone, suggesting a cycle bottom may be near.
Quick Take
82% of institutions see a late bear cycle markdown phase.
Bitcoin Combined Market Index at 0.37 signals deep undervaluation.
Short-term holder realized cap UTXO dropped to 3.91%, a 2023 level.
Expected Bitcoin dominance remains steady at 58.1%.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishStrong consensus on undervaluation combined with on-chain accumulation signals could fuel a recovery in Bitcoin price over the coming weeks to months.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- 82% of institutional investors now classify the market as a late bear cycle markdown phase, a sharp rise from one-third in December.
- The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) jumped to 0.37, a level historically linked with deep undervaluation and accumulation.
- Short-term holder realized cap UTXO fell to 3.91%, matching October 2023 levels when BTC traded near $27,000.
- Expectations for Bitcoin dominance are steady, with 54% predicting it will hold around the current 58.1%.
What Happened
A new survey from Coinbase and Glassnode reveals that over 70% of crypto investors now view Bitcoin as undervalued. The Global Investor Survey, conducted between mid-March and early April, polled 91 market participants, including 29 institutions and 62 retail investors. A striking 82% of institutions classified the current market as a late bear cycle markdown phase, up from roughly one-third in December. At the same time, 75% of institutional and 61% of non-institutional respondents said Bitcoin is undervalued. On-chain metrics reinforce this sentiment, with composite indicators flashing deep value signals rarely seen outside of market bottoms.
The Numbers
The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), an aggregate of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and sentiment data, rose to 0.37 from 0.26. A reading this low typically coincides with periods of deep undervaluation. The 90-day moving average continues to trend downward, but the short-term pop suggests a bottoming process. Short-term holder realized cap UTXO—a measure of recently moved coins—fell to 3.91%, a level last seen in October 2023 when Bitcoin was hovering near $27,000. This metric often contracts near cycle lows as speculative activity fades. Only a small fraction of survey participants flagged Bitcoin as overvalued, underscoring the bullish consensus.
Why It Happened
On-chain indicators provide a systematic framework for valuation. The MVRV ratio, which compares market cap to realized cap, is compressed in a zone that has historically preceded cycle bottoms. NUPL, tracking unrealized profit and loss, signals widespread underwater positions. SOPR, which measures whether coins are sold at a profit, confirms that short-term holders are realizing losses—a classic sign of capitulation. Combined, these metrics point to a market that has fully priced in bearish news flow. Investors interpret this as a “value-accumulation zone,” where downside appears limited relative to long-term upside. The survey’s sharp shift toward recognizing a late bear phase reflects growing conviction in this narrative.
Broader Impact
If history repeats, Bitcoin could be within 3–6 months of a cycle low. The alignment of deeply undervalued on-chain signals with strong institutional conviction may attract long-term capital. Steady Bitcoin dominance expectations—54% see it holding near 58.1%—suggest investors anticipate BTC will lead any recovery, rather than a rotation into altcoins. This defensive positioning could frustrate alt-season narratives in the short term.
What to Watch Next
- Watch for the BCMI 90-day moving average to turn upward, confirming a trend reversal out of the value zone.
- Monitor short-term holder UTXO age bands—a rise above 5% would indicate renewed speculative interest and possibly signal the start of a new uptrend.
- Pay attention to any surprise shift in Bitcoin dominance expectations; a move below 50% could signal a risk-on rotation into altcoins.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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