VanEck Sees More Bitcoin Gains Amid Bullish On-Chain Signals
VanEck analysts highlight historically bullish signals for Bitcoin, including negative funding rates and hash rate recovery, after BTC hit $79K. They see potential for further gains, supported by reversed ETP outflows and strong on-chain metrics.
Quick Take
Bitcoin funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, a historically bullish signal.
Hash rate drawdowns typically led to 37.7% median gains 90 days later.
Spot Bitcoin ETPs saw inflows resume after $4 billion in outflows.
VanEck analysis suggests favorable conditions for price appreciation ahead.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishBullish on-chain metrics and renewed institutional demand historically lead to medium-term price appreciation.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin funding rate flipped negative to -1.8%, historically signaling strong returns ahead.
- Hash rate drawdowns like the current 7.5% dip previously delivered 37.7% median gains over 90 days.
- Spot Bitcoin ETPs reversed $4B in outflows, with six of last seven weeks seeing net inflows.
- VanEck analysis shows conditions aligning for significant price appreciation, mirroring past profitable cycles.
What Happened
Bitcoin surged past $79,000 this week for the first time since January, and VanEck analysts are seeing a confluence of bullish on-chain signals. In a report released Friday, analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush highlighted the network’s negative funding rate, hash rate recovery, and renewed institutional inflows—conditions that have historically preceded strong price rallies. The cryptocurrency has since settled near $77,397, still up more than 11% over the past 30 days, as market sentiment gains traction from the technical setup.
The Numbers
Bitcoin’s funding rate hit -1.8%, its lowest point since 2023, suggesting a heavily bearish tilt among leveraged traders—often a contrarian buy signal. The hash rate, at a 30-day moving average of 985.5 EH/s, sits 7.5% below its all-time high. In six of the last seven similar drawdowns, Bitcoin rallied over the following 90 days, with a median gain of 37.7%. When funding rates stayed negative over 30-day periods since 2020, BTC posted average returns of 11.5%, compared to 4.5% across all periods. Moreover, spot Bitcoin ETPs snapped a $4 billion outflow streak, with net inflows in six of the past seven weeks.
Why It Happened
The bullish thesis is rooted in on-chain data that signals market extremes. Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying longs, discouraging bearish positioning and often sparking short squeezes. The hash rate recovery reflects a healthy and resilient network after recent sell-offs, while the reversal of ETP outflows points to renewed institutional appetite. VanEck has tracked similar patterns across multiple cycles, noting that these factors have consistently preceded outsized price appreciation.
Broader Impact
If history repeats, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a 30–40% rally, potentially pushing it toward the $100,000 mark. The analysis may further embolden institutional investors who were waiting for a clear bullish signal. The shift in ETP flows also suggests that traditional capital is rotating back into crypto, which could lift the entire digital asset market. This environment underscores the growing maturity and cyclical nature of Bitcoin markets.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor whether the funding rate remains negative for an extended period, which could amplify the expected rally.
- Watch for a sustained hash rate rebound, as further recovery would confirm network resilience and the bullish setup.
- Track weekly ETP flows; continued inflows would reinforce institutional conviction in Bitcoin’s upside.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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