Americans Bet $34B on Offshore Prediction Markets: Study
A study by the Coalition for Prediction Markets found Americans traded up to $34 billion on offshore platforms like Polymarket in the past year, despite bans. The report warns this could surge to $133 billion by 2030, as regulated operators push for stricter oversight of unregulated markets.
Quick Take
Americans traded $11–34B on offshore prediction markets in 12 months ending April 2026.
Polymarket accounted for most volume, with ~30% from U.S. users.
Offshore trading could reach $133B annually by 2030.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralArticle reports on a study about prediction market volumes, with no direct implication for cryptocurrency prices or market sentiment.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Americans traded an estimated $11–34 billion on offshore prediction markets in the 12 months through April 2026, skirting platform bans.
- Polymarket accounted for the bulk of volume, with up to 30% from U.S. users—about $10.6–$26.7 billion.
- The CFTC recently proposed banning event contracts on war and assassination, while a coalition of regulated exchanges pushes for offshore enforcement.
- If current trends hold, U.S. offshore prediction market volume could surge to $133 billion annually by 2030.
What Happened
A study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets—whose members include regulated platforms Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase—revealed that Americans traded between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction markets during the 12 months ending April 2026. The research, led by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, analyzed platforms that prohibit U.S. users but found significant domestic participation, primarily on Polymarket. The CFTC, which forced Polymarket offshore in 2022, recently proposed rules to ban certain event contracts covering war and assassination. The coalition argues that unregulated offshore markets lack customer protections and fuel a parallel financial system.
The Numbers
Polymarket’s trailing 12-month volume hit $55.6 billion, with an estimated $10.6–$26.7 billion coming from the U.S.—roughly 19% to 30% of its total. Americans’ offshore activity accounted for 12.5–31.5% of all U.S. prediction market volume, including regulated exchanges. If industry growth continues, the study projects offshore trading by Americans could reach $133 billion per year by 2030. Polymarket’s regulated U.S. platform has only notched about $5 billion in notional volume to date, a small fraction of its global numbers.
Why It Happened
Demand for prediction markets has exploded, but U.S. regulatory friction has pushed the biggest platforms offshore. Polymarket’s 2022 CFTC settlement forced it to block U.S. users, yet enforcement is spotty, and VPNs make geographic restrictions porous. Meanwhile, regulated competitors like Kalshi offer fewer markets and face tighter oversight. The coalition—which stands to gain from a crackdown—frames the study as evidence that Americans are flocking to unregulated platforms. The CFTC’s renewed push against event contracts adds urgency: without coordinated action, the gap between regulated and offshore markets will widen.
Broader Impact
The findings could accelerate regulatory action. The CFTC’s proposed event contract ban may be a first step, but offshore enforcement remains a challenge. If the U.S. tightens rules, regulated exchanges like Kalshi and Coinbase could capture more volume. However, a heavy-handed approach risks driving more users to decentralized or VPN-friendly platforms. The $133 billion projection also signals that prediction markets are becoming a mainstream financial tool, potentially inviting congressional scrutiny.
What to Watch Next
- CFTC rulemaking on event contracts—and whether it extends to enforcement against offshore platforms serving U.S. users.
- Polymarket’s regulated U.S. product: adoption rates will show if users prefer a compliant alternative or stick with the offshore version.
- Congressional interest: if volumes keep growing, lawmakers may weigh in on prediction market legislation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always late to trends?
Join for the latest news, insights & more.
Disclaimer: Bytewit is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data.
© 2026 Bytewit. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only.
