Bitcoin Bear Market Entering Late Stages: Analyst
Jamie Coutts of Real Vision says Bitcoin may be approaching the latter half of its bear market as negative momentum decelerates. With BTC near $63k, he sees bullish divergence on long timeframes, forecasting $200k-250k in 2-3 years, while cautioning on quantum computing.
Quick Take
Bitcoin bear market likely in "second half" as selling pressure eases.
BTC near $63k, 50% below ATH, volatility down vs prior cycle.
On-chain demand deteriorated but negative momentum is decelerating.
Coutts forecasts $200k-$250k in 2-3 years, cautious on $1M by 2030.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishAnalyst suggests Bitcoin's bear market may be entering its latter stages with decelerating negative momentum, providing medium-term bullish sentiment.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s bear market likely entering its latter stages as selling pressure eases, says Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts.
- BTC trades near $63,000, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak, with volatility halved from prior cycles.
- A bullish divergence on long timeframes signals decelerating negative momentum, though trend indicators remain bearish.
- Coutts projects Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 in the next two to three years, but is cautious on a $1 million target by 2030.
What Happened
Bitcoin’s bear market may be approaching its final phase, according to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Coutts noted that while the downturn isn’t over, the most intense selling may have passed. “I think we’re getting through most of the bear market action. It’s still not over, clearly. But I think we’re approaching at least the second half,” he said. Bitcoin currently trades around $63,000, a level roughly 50% below its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025. The current drawdown appears less severe than past cycles, with volatility declining by half compared to the previous bear market.
The Numbers
The data supports a maturing bear market. Bitcoin’s price is down 50% from its peak, but the 30-day return shows a modest 4.45% gain. The volatility drop of 50% suggests a less chaotic sell-off than in prior cycles. Coutts’ own models point to a potential recovery, forecasting $200,000 to $250,000 within two to three years. However, trend indicators remain firmly bearish, and the bullish divergence on momentum charts has yet to translate into a confirmed reversal.
Why It Happened
The prolonged downturn was driven by two factors: tightening global liquidity and weakening on-chain demand. Coutts highlighted that on-chain metrics, which traditionally track network activity and investor demand, began deteriorating alongside global financial conditions. This double hit pushed Bitcoin lower for months. Now, the deceleration in negative momentum indicates that selling pressure is exhausting. The bullish divergence—where price makes lower lows but momentum indicators make higher lows—often precedes trend reversals. While not a guaranteed signal, it suggests the worst of the sell-off may be behind.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor whether Bitcoin’s trend indicators flip from bearish to neutral or bullish on weekly timeframes.
- Watch for a sustained recovery in on-chain demand metrics, such as active addresses or transaction volumes.
- Track global liquidity conditions, as a shift toward easing could accelerate Bitcoin’s recovery.
- Keep an eye on the $70,000–$75,000 resistance zone, a break above which could confirm a new uptrend.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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