Bitcoin Could Crash to $24K if US Stocks Drop 50%
Analyst Jesse Olson forecasts Bitcoin dropping to $23,980 in a severe stock market crash. Negative Coinbase premium and $4.68B in Bitcoin ETF outflows signal weak institutional demand, strengthening the bearish scenario if macro conditions worsen.
Quick Take
Analyst sees BTC dropping to $23,980 if US stocks crash over 50%
Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating weak institutional buying
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.68B in net outflows since May
Stock market crash prediction aligns with warnings from Grantham and Burry
Market Impact Analysis
BearishAnalyst warns of a 60%+ BTC drop if stocks crash, supported by weak institutional demand and ETF outflows, but the crash is speculative.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin could plunge to $23,980 if the US stock market crashes more than 50%, according to analyst Jesse Olson.
- The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, signaling weak institutional buying appetite.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled $4.68 billion in net outflows since May, reflecting professional de-risking.
- The forecast hinges on technical support from the 2022 bear market bottom anchored VWAP.
What Happened
Analyst Jesse Olson warned Bitcoin could fall to $23,980 if the US stock market crashes by more than 50%. He shared a chart based on his custom VWAP indicator, anchored from the 2022 bear market low. This line acts as a long-term support. The forecast aligns with warnings from veteran investors like Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry, who see a potential stock market bubble. While speculative, the correlation between BTC and risk assets could drag crypto down in a severe equity sell-off.
The Numbers
The $23,980 target represents a 60%+ drop from current levels. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and Binance, has stayed mostly negative in 2026, pointing to muted institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $4.68 billion in cumulative outflows since May, reinforcing the bearish demand picture. These figures underscore the fragility of Bitcoin's institutional support if macro conditions sour.
Why It Happened
Olson's bearish outlook ties to two factors: a long-term technical support line and deteriorating institutional demand. The anchored VWAP from the 2022 bottom provides a logical worst-case level in a deleveraging event. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium and ETF flows suggest big players are already reducing exposure. If equities enter a correction, forced selling could accelerate the drop toward Olson's target.
Broader Impact
A stock market crash would likely trigger a broad de-risking across asset classes, with crypto hit hardest due to its high-beta nature. The warning echoes macro concerns from Grantham, Burry, and Shilling, who see recession risks. Even if Olson's target isn't hit, the data highlights the market's vulnerability to external shocks and waning institutional confidence.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor the Coinbase Premium Index for a shift into positive territory, signaling renewed institutional buying.
- Watch Bitcoin's price action near key support levels, especially if equities show signs of a deepening sell-off.
- Track ETF flow data for a reversal in the outflow trend, which would indicate returning demand.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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