Bitcoin Holds $61K as AI Stocks Plunge on Weak Jobs Data
Soft US jobs data and a sharp sell-off in AI stocks sparked hopes of capital rotating into Bitcoin and gold. Onchain indicators signal seller exhaustion and a potential cycle bottom, with Bitcoin price reclaiming $61,000. Reduced Fed rate hike expectations further bolster scarce assets.
Quick Take
US added only 57K jobs in June, missing estimates and lowering rate hike odds
AI chipmaker stocks sank over 9%, fueling capital rotation into scarce assets
Onchain profit/loss ratio hits multi-year low, historically marking a cycle bottom
Bitcoin may target $70K if equity weakness persists and flows shift to crypto
Market Impact Analysis
BullishWeak economic data reduces rate hike odds, weakening the dollar and boosting scarce assets; rotation from overvalued AI stocks may flow into Bitcoin.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Weak US jobs data triggered a sharp rotation out of overheated AI stocks and into Bitcoin
- Onchain profit/loss ratio hit its lowest since 2022, historically a sign of seller exhaustion and a cycle bottom
- Fed rate hike odds plunged to 54%, easing pressure on scarce assets
- Bitcoin may target $70,000 if equity weakness persists and capital continues flowing into crypto
What Happened
Bitcoin held above $61,000 after a dismal US jobs report and a brutal sell-off in AI stocks shifted investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 erased three days of gains, while Bitcoin distanced itself from its midweek low of $57,750. Gold also recovered, hinting at a broader rotation into scarce assets. The move came as traders reassessed rate hike expectations amid signs of a softening labor market, fueling hopes that capital will flow from overvalued equities into crypto.
The Numbers
The US economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below the 113,000 estimate. April and May figures were revised down by 74,000. Rate hike odds for September tumbled to 54% from 64%, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Bitcoin’s bounce from $57,750 to reclaim $61,000 occurred as the onchain realized profit-to-loss ratio sank to its lowest level since 2022, a metric that typically coincides with seller exhaustion and cycle bottoms.
Why It Happened
Weak employment data slashed expectations of further monetary tightening, weakening the dollar and making scarce assets more attractive. Simultaneously, a sharp reversal in overheated AI stocks—with chipmakers like SanDisk and Western Digital falling over 9%—spooked equity investors into seeking alternatives. Onchain indicators amplified the crypto narrative: extreme seller exhaustion signaled that Bitcoin was primed for a rebound once capital started rotating in.
Broader Impact
If AI sector weakness deepens, the rotation into Bitcoin and gold could accelerate. Lower oil prices and a stagnating Fed balance sheet may also open the door for future liquidity injections, further favoring scarce assets. This dynamic could mark a near-term bottom for Bitcoin and set the stage for a run toward $70,000.
What to Watch Next
- Continued AI stock weakness could force more institutional capital into Bitcoin, breaking the recent correlation with tech equities
- A sustained hold above $61,000 sets up a potential retest of $65,000 and possibly $70,000 if macro tailwinds persist
- Keep an eye on upcoming Fed speeches and economic data; any dovish shift may accelerate the rotation into scarce assets
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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