Bitcoin Holds Near $64K as US PPI Cools
Bitcoin steadied near $63,900 on Thursday after July's US Producer Price Index came in slightly below expectations, boosting equities and rate-pause odds. Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack remained hawkish, while Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft warned of long liquidation risk building near the $61,000 price level.
Quick Take
US PPI cooled to 4.7% year-on-year, below 4.9% expectations, lifting stocks.
Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack remains hawkish, questioning whether inflation will hit 2% soon.
Glassnode cofounder flags long liquidation risk building around $61,000 as forced selling potential.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralCooler PPI supports risk assets, but hawkish Fed commentary and a $61K long liquidation cluster keep Bitcoin rangebound.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- US PPI cooled to 4.7% year-on-year, below 4.9% expectations, lifting stocks and rate-pause bets.
- Bitcoin held steady near $63,900, up 0.5% on the day, with volatility absent after the data.
- Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack stayed hawkish, doubting inflation will reach 2% soon; she voted for a July hike.
- Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft warned of a long liquidation cluster at $61,000 that could trigger forced selling.
What Happened
Bitcoin traded near $63,900 on Thursday, up 0.5% over 24 hours, as the July US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below expectations. The index was unchanged month-on-month at 0.2%, while the year-on-year increase of 4.7% fell short of the 4.9% forecast. US equities rallied at the open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up 0.87% and 0.94% respectively. The cooler data reinforced market bets that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September, with CME FedWatch showing 65.6% odds of a pause. Bitcoin's rangebound price action continued, with volatility broadly absent.
The Numbers
The BLS reported final demand services rose 0.2% in July, construction advanced 2.2%, while goods fell 0.7%. Falling gasoline and energy prices provided the biggest relief. CME FedWatch showed 65.6% probability of the Fed holding the target range at 3.50-3.75% in September. Bitcoin traded at $63,900, up 0.5% on the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.87% and 0.94% respectively at the open. Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft identified a long liquidation cluster at $61,000, where forced selling could accelerate if price breaks below.
Why It Happened
Cooler-than-expected PPI data added to evidence that inflation is gradually easing, following Wednesday's CPI print that matched forecasts. This reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, lifting equities and supporting Bitcoin. However, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, one of three officials who dissented in July by voting for a 0.25% hike, struck a hawkish tone, questioning whether inflation will reach 2% soon. The conflicting signals—dovish data versus hawkish Fed commentary—kept Bitcoin in a tight range, with traders hesitant to push price above resistance or below key support.
Broader Impact
The reaction highlights Bitcoin's sensitivity to US macro data and Fed policy expectations. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, any shift in rate-hike odds could trigger directional moves. The $61,000 liquidation level serves as a critical threshold; a break below could lead to cascading long liquidations, while sustained support may encourage further upside if macro conditions remain favorable.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor whether Bitcoin holds above $61,000; a break could trigger long liquidations and accelerate declines.
- Watch for any further Fed commentary or data that shifts rate-hike expectations for September.
- Track equity market performance as a gauge for risk appetite and its spillover into crypto.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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