Bitcoin's calm top may mean higher cycle bottom: Galaxy
Galaxy Research suggests Bitcoin’s calmer October 2025 top may result in a higher cycle bottom, with base estimates between $40,000 and $46,000. Few topping indicators triggered, and the network's cost basis remains high. However, declining demand and absent bottoming signals warrant caution.
Quick Take
BTC's October 2025 top: only 2 of 11 topping signals triggered.
Galaxy sees base bottom $40K–$46K from cost basis.
652K BTC weekly demand decline signals caution.
Drawdown 8 months old; historical bottoms take 12-13 months.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralGalaxy’s analysis provides a data-driven framework for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom, but conflicting demand signals limit immediate market impact.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Only 2 of 11 topping signals triggered during Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, marking a historically calm cycle top.
- Galaxy Research places the base-case cycle bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, well above prior bear-market floors.
- Weekly demand for BTC across spot and futures has shrunk by 652,000 coins, signaling persistent caution.
- The current drawdown is 8 months old; historical bottoms typically form 12–13 months after a peak.
What Happened
Galaxy Research has issued a detailed cycle analysis suggesting Bitcoin’s subdued October 2025 top may lead to a higher-than-expected bear-market floor. Unlike previous peaks driven by rampant speculation, this one saw only a couple of traditional overheating indicators flash. The network’s realized price—the average cost basis of all coins—remains elevated at $53,600. Galaxy’s base-case bottom range sits at $40,000 to $46,000. Bitcoin currently trades around $59,000, just 9% above its realized price. However, most bottoming signals have yet to appear, and on-chain data reveals a sharp decline in demand, with 652,000 fewer BTC moving weekly across spot and futures.
The Numbers
Galaxy’s analysis shows Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio peaked at just 2.29 in October 2025, far below the 2.93 to 5.91 readings of prior cycle tops. This calm peak has kept the realized price at 43.7% of the all-time high, versus 17%–34% in past cycles, effectively raising the theoretical floor. The base-case bottom of $40K–$46K implies a peak-to-trough drawdown of approximately 51%, the shallowest on record. Weekly demand has fallen by 652,000 BTC, and with the drawdown only 8 months old—compared to historical bottoms taking 12–13 months—there may be further downside ahead. A deeper panic could drag the floor toward $28,000 if coins change hands at a loss and reset the cost basis.
Why It Happened
The mild top reflects a maturing market with greater institutional participation and less retail frenzy. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle continues to track historically, but the absence of speculative mania kept the network’s cost basis high, raising the lower bound. Only two of eleven topping indicators triggered, and the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failed for the first time. This structural shift from bubble-like peaks to orderly tops is lifting implied floors. However, weak demand, fueled by tightening macro conditions, threatens to erode that floor if a capitulation event forces mass selling at a loss, pulling the cost basis downward and resetting the bottom range.
Broader Impact
Galaxy’s analysis challenges the classic boom-bust narrative, implying Bitcoin’s maturation is reducing extreme drawdowns. If the floor holds near $40K, it would mark the shallowest cycle decline in Bitcoin’s history at around 51%. This could bolster long-term institutional confidence but also underscores that each cycle sees diminishing volatility, potentially changing how traders approach market timing. The findings may influence expectations for Ethereum and other large-cap assets, as the crypto market increasingly decouples from four-year hype cycles driven solely by retail speculation.
What to Watch Next
- Watch for additional bottoming signals from Galaxy’s checklist, such as MVRV crossing below 1 or long-term holder capitulation, to confirm a final floor.
- Monitor on-chain coin movement — a surge in loss-taking could quickly erode the realized price and drag the implied bottom toward $28,000.
- Keep an eye on macro liquidity shifts and Bitcoin ETF flows, which may either stabilize demand or accelerate the decline.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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