Bitcoin Stuck Below Death Cross After Jobs Miss
The U.S. lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below expectations, cutting rate-hike odds. Bitcoin rallied to $64,938 but remains below key moving averages in a death cross. Bearish technicals and prediction markets suggest a drop to $55,000 before any recovery.
Quick Take
U.S. jobs report misses by 118K, slashing Fed rate hike odds to 40%.
Bitcoin's death cross persists, price capped below 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
Prediction market Myriad gives 65% chance BTC falls to $55K before any upside.
Support at $60K; break below reopens downtrend to $58K July low.
Market Impact Analysis
BearishDeath cross and failure to reclaim moving averages, combined with a bearish prediction market outlook, suggest near-term downside despite the dovish macro signal.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, far below the 95,000 gain economists expected, pushing the CME FedWatch probability of a September rate hike down to 40%.
- Bitcoin rallied to $64,938 but remains stuck below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, maintaining a bearish death cross pattern.
- Prediction market Myriad prices a 65% chance that BTC drops to $55,000 before any recovery toward $84,000.
- A break below the $60,000 support could reopen the downtrend toward the July low of $58,000.
What Happened
The U.S. labor market delivered a shocking miss in July, reporting a net loss of 23,000 jobs against the consensus estimate of a 95,000 gain. This was the first decline since the pandemic-era recovery, and it crushed expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. Bitcoin reacted with a modest 1.06% gain to $64,938, yet the rally lacked conviction. The largest cryptocurrency remains pinned below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, a setup known as a death cross that suggests sustained downward momentum. Despite the dovish macro signal, Bitcoin failed to break its bearish technical structure, keeping traders cautious.
The Numbers
The July jobs figure was a severe outlier. Economists had forecast a gain of 95,000, but instead, employers cut 23,000 positions. The CME FedWatch tool immediately recalibrated, slashing the odds of a September rate hike to 40% from 55% a day earlier. Bitcoin’s price inched up to $64,938, still below the 50-day EMA (near $66,000) and the 200-day EMA. The Relative Strength Index reads a neutral 54.6, indicating no imminent breakout or washout. On the prediction market Myriad, traders assign a 65% chance that BTC hits $55,000 before it ever sees $84,000.
Why It Happened
A weaker jobs market typically boosts risk assets by reducing the likelihood of rate hikes, which lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. But the current rally is constrained by technical headwinds. The death cross — with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA — has kept selling pressure intact since mid-May. Bitcoin’s inability to close above the 50-day line through a prolonged consolidation coil signals that bears still control the near-term trend. Even with a softening Fed, the path of least resistance appears lower until these moving averages are reclaimed.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor the $60,000 support level closely. A daily close beneath it could trigger a swift move toward the July low of $58,000.
- Watch for a break above the 50-day EMA and $66,000 resistance. That would be the first bullish signal to challenge the death cross.
- Keep an eye on Fed rhetoric and incoming economic data. Any shift in rate expectations could quickly alter Bitcoin’s trajectory.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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