Bitcoin Traders Bet on Drop Below $70K as ETF Outflows Mount
Bitcoin dipped to $72,739 as prediction markets show 27% odds of a sub-$70K drop by May's end, fueled by $924M in liquidations and $2.6B in ETF outflows over eight days. While near-term bets remain cautious, longer-term views on Polymarket lean bearish for 2026.
Quick Take
Prediction odds for BTC <$70K by May surge 240% on Myriad to 27%.
$924M liquidated in 24h, $851M from long positions.
Bitcoin ETFs shed $2.6B during eight-day losing streak.
Longer-term bets see 54% odds of BTC below $55K in 2026.
Market Impact Analysis
BearishETF outflows and high liquidations drive bearish sentiment, with prediction markets showing increased short-term downside expectations.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Prediction market odds for Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by May surged 240% in 24 hours, reaching 27% on Myriad.
- Over $924 million in crypto positions were liquidated in a single day, with $851 million from long bets.
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs bled $2.6 billion across an eight-day losing streak, including $733 million on Wednesday alone.
- Polymarket odds put a 54% chance on Bitcoin dipping below $55,000 in 2026, signaling longer-term bearishness.
What Happened
Bitcoin slumped to $72,739, just 3.9% above the $70,000 mark, as bearish bets piled up across prediction markets. Odds for a sub-$70K Bitcoin by the end of May skyrocketed 240% on Myriad to 27%, while Polymarket priced a 26% probability. The asset hit a six-week low of $72,669 overnight, reflecting mounting pressure from ETF outflows and a cascade of liquidations. The abrupt move signals a rapid shift in trader sentiment, with many now hedging for a breakdown below the key support level.
The Numbers
In the last 24 hours, over $924 million in crypto positions were wiped out—92% of them long bets expecting prices to rise. Bitcoin's current price is down 3% in that period. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. suffered $2.6 billion in outflows over eight consecutive days, with $733 million exiting on Wednesday alone. Meanwhile, longer-term prediction markets price a 54% probability that Bitcoin dips below $55,000 in 2026.
Why It Happened
Sustained ETF outflows are draining liquidity, triggering price weakness and forcing over-leveraged longs to exit. The $733 million outflow on Wednesday was the largest single-day hit, accelerating the selloff. As prices dipped toward $70K, cascading liquidations of $851 million in long positions amplified the downward spiral. This negative feedback loop is pushing traders to hedge with bearish bets in prediction markets.
Broader Impact
The surge in bearish sentiment extends beyond near-term price action. Polymarket odds for Bitcoin below $55,000 in 2026 exceed 50%, suggesting structural concerns. A break below $70,000 could trigger another wave of liquidations, dragging altcoins with it. ETF flows remain the key barometer for institutional appetite, and their reversal could signal a deeper correction.
What to Watch Next
- $70,000 support: A decisive break below could accelerate selling and push Bitcoin toward the mid-$60Ks.
- ETF flow reversal: A slowdown or positive inflows would signal returning institutional confidence and stabilize prices.
- Prediction market shifts: Monitor Myriad and Polymarket odds for sudden spikes, especially if liquidations intensify.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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