BTC Supply in Profit Nears 60%, But Recovery May Roll Back Over
Bitcoin's supply in profit has risen to 57.5%, up from 46.2% in late June. CryptoQuant warns that long-term holder SOPR remains weak, and without holding key thresholds, the rally risks reversing like a prior failed breakout.
Quick Take
BTC supply in profit rebounded to 57.5% from June's 46.2% low.
LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA remains below 1 for over 50 days.
Prior false breakout: LTH-SOPR held above 1 for 35 days then reversed.
Recovery needs supply profit >64% and LTH-SOPR >1 sustained.
Market Impact Analysis
BearishOn-chain data shows recovery attempts that may fail like previous one, signaling potential downside.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin supply in profit surged from 46.2% to 57.5% in under a month, but the rally mirrors a prior false breakout that ended in reversal.
- Long-term holder SOPR has stayed below 1 for more than 50 days, signaling that experienced investors are still moving coins at a loss.
- The April–May recovery saw LTH-SOPR above 1 for 35 days and supply profit at 67% before rolling over — a warning for current conditions.
- A sustained BTC uptrend requires supply in profit above 64% and a 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR above 1 without breaking down.
What Happened
Bitcoin’s supply in profit rebounded sharply from multi-year lows, but on-chain metrics are flashing warning signals that the recovery may not hold. Data from CryptoQuant shows the percentage of BTC worth more than its acquisition price climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30—the lowest since 2026. The improvement echoes a similar pattern seen in April and May, when both supply profit and long-term holder SOPR briefly surged before rolling over, trapping bullish investors. Now, with LTH-SOPR still languishing below 1, the market faces the risk of another false breakout unless key thresholds are decisively breached.
The Numbers
Bitcoin supply in profit jumped 11.3 percentage points to 57.5% from its late-June low. Meanwhile, the 30-day simple moving average of the long-term holder spent output profit ratio has been stuck below 1 for more than 50 days, indicating persistent on-chain losses for seasoned hands. In the prior failed recovery, LTH-SOPR averaged above 1 for 35 days (April 28–June 1) and supply in profit peaked at 67%—only for both to reverse. Historical data suggests a bull market confirmation requires supply in profit above 64% and the LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA sustained above 1 without falling back.
Why It Happened
The rise in supply profitability mirrors Bitcoin’s price recovery from June lows, mechanically pushing more coins back into the black. However, long-term holders continue to move coins at a loss, as reflected by the sub-1 SOPR—a sign of weak demand and potential distribution during rallies. The April–May episode provides a cautionary parallel: early optimism faded as selling pressure resumed, triggering a sharp unwind. Without sustained improvement in holder behavior and demand, the current uptick risks repeating that pattern.
Broader Impact
The fragile on-chain picture could delay a broad market recovery, especially if Bitcoin fails to confirm a trend change. Altcoins often track BTC’s lead, meaning a rollback could extend the bearish phase across crypto. The pattern also reinforces lessons from previous cycles: genuine recoveries are built on sustained demand and conviction from long-term investors, not just fleeting price pops.
What to Watch Next
- If Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 64% and holds, it would signal strengthening momentum and a possible trend shift.
- A decisive break of the LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA above 1 for multiple weeks would confirm that long-term holders are moving coins in profit, reducing downside risk.
- Any rejection from current levels or failure to sustain above key support could trigger another wave of selling, mirroring the April reversal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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