Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com Deal to Supercharge Prediction Markets
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to integrate event contracts into its prediction markets hub, launched in March. Bernstein raised its HOOD price target to $160, projecting prediction market revenue could hit $1.7 billion by 2028, despite ongoing CFTC and state lawsuits.
Quick Take
Robinhood discussing event contract integration with Crypto.com's prediction market platform.
Bernstein lifts HOOD price target to $160, sees $1.7B revenue by 2028.
Prediction markets could reach $1T volume by 2030, per Bernstein analyst note.
CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction while state gaming authorities file lawsuits.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishA partnership could expand Robinhood's prediction market offerings, driving revenue and user adoption, but regulatory headwinds and uncertain deal closure temper upside.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- Robinhood is negotiating with Crypto.com to integrate event contracts into its prediction markets hub launched in March 2025.
- Bernstein raised the HOOD price target to $160, projecting $1.7 billion in prediction market revenue by 2028.
- Prediction markets could reach $1 trillion in volume by 2030, but legal battles between the CFTC and state gaming authorities cloud the outlook.
- The CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, while multiple state lawsuits seek to restrict platform activities.
What Happened
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to expand its prediction markets platform by adding yes-or-no event contracts supplied by the crypto exchange. The move comes just months after Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025, initially facilitated by Kalshi to meet CFTC requirements. The platform later added contracts from ForecastEx and Rotella. Now, a partnership with Crypto.com would broaden the range of event-based trading options available to users seeking wagers on outcomes from elections to economic indicators. The discussion signals Robinhood’s aggressive push into a fast-growing market even as regulatory uncertainty looms.
The Numbers
Bernstein analysts boosted their HOOD price target to $160 per share, up from $130, citing prediction market momentum. The firm projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue could hit $1.7 billion by 2028. In a longer-range forecast, Bernstein sees the overall prediction market volume surpassing $1 trillion by 2030. These estimates fuel the bull case despite near-term legal headwinds. With a market cap hovering around $20 billion, the revenue potential represents a significant growth catalyst for the trading platform.
Why It Happened
Robinhood is capitalizing on surging demand for event-based trading, a niche popularized by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The company aims to diversify beyond equities and crypto into high-engagement products that capture user attention and sticky volumes. By partnering with an established crypto exchange like Crypto.com, Robinhood could rapidly scale its contract offerings without building infrastructure from scratch. The move aligns with Bernstein’s thesis that tokenized assets and prediction markets will be major revenue drivers over the next decade, even as the CFTC and state gaming regulators battle over who gets to oversee the sector.
Broader Impact
If the deal closes, it could cement prediction markets as a legitimate retail investment instrument, forcing regulators to clarify jurisdictional boundaries. The partnership would also intensify competition, pressuring fees and improving contract diversity. For Crypto.com, supplying contracts to a mainstream brokerage like Robinhood would validate its prediction market infrastructure and potentially attract more institutional partners. However, the CFTC’s claim of exclusive authority and aggressive state-level lawsuits remain existential threats to the entire vertical.
What to Watch Next
- Progress updates on Robinhood’s talks with Crypto.com and potential deal terms.
- Key courtroom decisions in CFTC and state lawsuits that could set binding precedents for prediction markets.
- HOOD stock reaction to quarterly earnings or formal partnership announcements that validate Bernstein’s revenue forecasts.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always late to trends?
Join for the latest news, insights & more.
Disclaimer: Bytewit is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data.
© 2026 Bytewit. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only.
