US Dominates Polymarket Political Bets Despite Geoblocking
Research shows US users are the largest bloc on Polymarket's political markets by volume and wallets, even after the platform's geoblocking and CFTC settlement. The data raises regulatory concerns for the crypto predictions industry.
Quick Take
US users lead Polymarket's political betting volume despite geoblock measures.
Allium's analysis estimates US dominance using only 6% of tagged wallets.
Harry Crane suggests 30% of Polymarket's volume comes from the US.
Regulators are scrutinizing the platform, with Spain blocking access.
Market Impact Analysis
NeutralThe article highlights regulatory challenges for a specific crypto platform, with little direct effect on broader crypto market prices.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- US-based users form the largest political betting bloc on Polymarket, accounting for an estimated 30% of volume despite platform geoblocks.
- Allium’s blockchain analysis, based on 6% of tagged wallets, confirms US dominance in contracts traded and wallet count.
- Polymarket’s 2022 CFTC settlement and IP blocking have failed to deter VPN users, drawing renewed regulatory attention.
- Four countries are in ‘close only’ mode, and over 34 nations now block the platform, with Spain the latest to restrict access.
What Happened
US users continue to dominate political betting on Polymarket, despite the platform's efforts to geoblock American traders. Blockchain research from Allium reveals that US-based accounts lead in both contracts traded and total wallets, even after Polymarket restricted US access following a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022. The data shows that geoblocking has pushed activity offshore, not eliminated it. US bettors remain the single largest cohort, raising fresh questions about the effectiveness of platform-level restrictions in decentralized markets.
The Numbers
Harry Crane, a Rutgers statistician, estimates that 30% of Polymarket’s volume originates from the US—equating to between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion in projected trading from May 2025 to April 2026. Allium’s analysis, based on just 6% of tagged wallets, provides directional evidence of US dominance. Since its CFTC settlement, Polymarket has blocked IP addresses linked to VPNs and now restricts users in over 34 countries. Four nations—Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Poland—are in 'close only' mode, with Spain recently joining the block list.
Why It Happened
Demand for uncensored prediction markets remains strong among US users, who easily bypass geoblocks using VPNs and decentralized wallets. Allium’s findings suggest US traders are more drawn to foreign conflict markets than domestic elections, which are available on regulated platforms like Kalshi. Polymarket’s geoblocking relies on IP filtering, but sophisticated users adapt quickly. The platform’s recent crackdown on VPN IP addresses indicates an ongoing cat-and-mouse game. The 2022 CFTC settlement did not deter participation; instead, it drove activity further underground.
Broader Impact
This data intensifies regulatory pressure on Polymarket and the wider crypto predictions sector. US regulators may view the platform as violating the CFTC settlement, potentially triggering new enforcement actions. The blocking wave—over 34 countries now restrict access—signals growing global unease with prediction markets. For Polymarket, the challenge is whether to enhance enforcement or accept that a portion of its user base remains beyond reach.
What to Watch Next
- Potential CFTC or DOJ action: Watch for any enforcement signals given the evidence of US user dominance.
- Access restrictions spread: Monitor if more nations follow Spain’s lead in blocking Polymarket.
- Platform countermeasures: Observe how Polymarket evolves its VPN blocking technology and whether user volumes shift.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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