XRP Capitulation Signal: Profit/Loss Ratio Drops to 0.38
XRP holders are selling at a loss as the 90-day MA profit/loss ratio hits 0.38, signaling market capitulation. With XRP down nearly 40% YTD and most coins underwater, the bear market may be nearing exhaustion, potentially paving the way for a reversal.
Quick Take
XRP's realized profit-to-loss ratio dropped to 0.38, signaling capitulation.
The ratio's 2025 peak was 50, highlighting extreme shift to loss-taking.
Capitulation often coincides with market bottoms, hinting the bear trend may end.
XRP price at $1.11, down 40% YTD, below the $3.60 peak.
Market Impact Analysis
BullishCapitulation signals often precede market bottoms, suggesting a potential reversal for XRP.
Speculation Analysis
Key Takeaways
- XRP's 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio collapsed to 0.38 — holders are taking just 38 cents in profit for every $1 of losses.
- The ratio peaked at 50 in 2025, underscoring a dramatic shift to widespread capitulation and loss-selling.
- Such capitulation often marks exhaustion in bear markets, suggesting XRP's downtrend may be in its final stages.
- XRP trades at $1.11, down nearly 40% year-to-date and far below the $3.60 high from last July.
What Happened
XRP holders are selling at a loss in a clear capitulation signal. The 90-day moving average of the realized profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to 0.38, according to Glassnode data. That means investors are realizing 38 cents in profit for every dollar of losses. Most coins trading on the blockchain are underwater, with sellers overwhelming buyers. This reflects intense fear and forced selling as exhausted holders throw in the towel after months of decline.
The Numbers
The current ratio of 0.38 is a stark reversal from the 2025 peak of 50, when profit-takers dominated by a 50-to-1 margin. XRP trades at $1.11, down nearly 40% year-to-date and far below the $3.60 high set last July. The ratio below 1 indicates that more coins are being sold at a loss than at a profit, a hallmark of market capitulation.
Why It Happened
The prolonged bear market has worn down XRP holders, eroding confidence and triggering a capitulation wave. Selling pressure has mounted as the price fell 40% from its peak, leaving most positions in the red. The ratio plunge reflects a shift from greedy profit-taking to fearful loss-selling, typical of late-stage downtrends when holders finally relent.
Broader Impact
Capitulation signals often appear near market bottoms. While not a precise timing tool, such extreme loss-taking has historically preceded reversals in crypto. For XRP, this could mark the exhaustion phase of the bear market, suggesting a potential turnaround if buyers step in.
What to Watch Next
- Monitor XRP for a potential bounce from the $1 support level, a critical psychological zone.
- Watch for a spike in buying volume that would confirm a capitulation-driven bottom.
- Keep an eye on broader market sentiment and Bitcoin's direction, as XRP often correlates with major crypto moves.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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